Buyers Markets Are Everywhere Now- Does Your Market Have Over 6 Months of Inventory?

We Are Seeing More and More Buyers Markets Every Month

Which U.S. real estate markets are now buyer's markets with over 6 months of inventory in 2026. Complete data on Florida, Hawaii, Texas, Arizona, and more with pricing trends, investment opportunities, and market forecasts.

The Return of the Buyer's Market

After years of extreme seller's market conditions that dominated the American real estate landscape from 2020 through 2023, a fundamental shift is underway across numerous U.S. housing markets. As of early 2026, multiple markets have crossed the critical 6-month inventory threshold, officially entering buyer's market territory for the first time since the pandemic housing boom.

This comprehensive analysis examines current months of supply data across major U.S. markets, identifying where buyers now hold negotiating power, where prices are adjusting, and what these trends mean for homebuyers, sellers, and real estate investors in 2026 and beyond.

Key Findings:

- At least 13 specific markets currently show 6+ months of inventory (buyer's market conditions)
- Nine states have surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels
- National inventory stands at 4.6 months (approaching the 6-month balanced threshold)
- Florida markets lead the shift, with some areas reaching 8 months of supply
- Median home prices in buyer's markets have declined 4-11% year-over-year
- Days on market have increased 60-127% in emerging buyer's markets

Understanding Months of Inventory: The Critical Market Indicator

What Is Months of Inventory?

Months of inventory (MOI) represents the number of months it would take to sell all currently listed homes at the current sales pace, assuming no new properties enter the market. This metric provides the most accurate snapshot of supply-versus-demand dynamics in any real estate market.

The calculation is straightforward:

Months of Inventory = Active Listings ÷ Monthly Sales Rate

For example: If a market has 3,000 active listings and 500 homes sold in the past month, the months of inventory equals 6.0 months (3,000 ÷ 500 = 6).

Market Classification by Months of Inventory

Real estate professionals use the following benchmarks to classify market conditions:

Months of InventoryMarket ClassificationMarket Dynamics0-3 monthsStrong Seller's MarketMultiple offers common, homes sell quickly, prices rising rapidly, buyers have minimal negotiating power3-5 monthsSeller's MarketLimited inventory, homes sell relatively quickly, sellers maintain pricing power, some buyer competition5-6 monthsBalanced/Neutral MarketSupply and demand roughly equal, reasonable negotiation for both parties, stable pricing6-7 monthsBuyer's MarketIncreased selection, longer days on market, buyers gain negotiating leverage, price growth slows7+ monthsStrong Buyer's MarketAbundant choices, significant negotiating power for buyers, potential price reductions, longer selling times10+ monthsDistressed Buyer's MarketExcess inventory, substantial price corrections possible, sellers struggle to find buyers

The 6-month threshold is particularly significant because it marks the transition point where market leverage shifts from sellers to buyers. Above this level, buyers typically have time to conduct thorough due diligence, negotiate favorable terms, request concessions, and avoid bidding wars.

National Housing Market Overview: 2026 Current Conditions

National Inventory Snapshot

As of January 2026, the national real estate market shows the following characteristics:

National Market Metrics - January 2026

MetricCurrent ValueYear-Over-Year ChangeTrend DirectionMonths of Supply4.6 months+0.8 months (+21%)↑ IncreasingActive Listings~912,696+83,320 (+10.0%)↑ RisingMedian List Price$419,950+0.2%→ FlatPrice Per Square Foot$209-1.0%↓ DecliningMedian Days on Market91 days+15% YoY↑ LengtheningAverage 30-Year Mortgage Rate6.15-6.25%-0.4% from 2025 peak↓ Easing

Key Observations:

- Inventory growth is accelerating: The U.S. housing market has experienced 24 consecutive months of year-over-year inventory growth through January 2026
- The market is normalizing: After reaching historic lows of 0.6 months in March 2021, inventory has steadily climbed toward pre-pandemic norms
- Regional variations are extreme: While the national average sits at 4.6 months, individual markets range from under 2 months to over 10 months
- Price growth has stalled: National median prices increased just 0.9% in 2025, the slowest growth since the Great Financial Crisis recovery
Historical Context: How We Got Here

2020-2022: The Pandemic Boom

- Months of inventory plummeted to record lows (0.6-1.5 months nationally)
- Home prices surged 18-19% annually
- Bidding wars became standard practice
- Homes sold in days, often sight unseen
- Cash offers and waived contingencies dominated

2023-2024: The Adjustment Phase

- Mortgage rates spiked to 7-8%, shocking demand
- Inventory began climbing from historic lows
- Price growth decelerated sharply
- Days on market increased
- Sellers maintained pricing power in most markets

2025-2026: The Rebalancing

- Inventory continues steady growth
- Multiple markets cross into buyer's territory
- Price growth approaches zero or turns negative in some areas
- Buyers regain negotiating leverage
- Market returns toward historical norms

Markets Currently in Buyer's Market Territory (6+ Months Inventory)

Complete List of Confirmed Buyer's Markets - Early 2026

Based on the most recent data available, the following markets have confirmed months of inventory at or above the 6-month buyer's market threshold:

Florida Markets with 6+ Months Inventory

MarketMonths of InventoryData PeriodMedian PriceYoY Price ChangeDays on MarketPunta Gorda/Port Charlotte8.0 monthsDec 2025$—-1.1% (sold/list ratio)101 daysNaples7.8 monthsJan 2026$———Bonita Springs7.5 monthsJan 2026$———Fort Myers7.3 monthsJan 2026$———Cape Coral6.1 monthsNov 2025$366,903-5.9 days

Hawaii Markets with 6+ Months Inventory

Market AreaProperty TypeMonths of InventoryMedian PriceYoY Price ChangeDays on MarketOahu - North ShoreSingle-Family Homes7.4 months$1,500,000-2 daysOahu - Nuuanu-MakikiSingle-Family Homes7.0 months$1,300,000+5 daysOahu - Downtown-NuuanuCondominiums6.8 months$380,000-5 daysOahu - Salt LakeCondominiums6.3 months$400,000-6 days

Additional Markets Approaching or at Buyer's Market Threshold

Market/RegionMonths of InventoryStatusNotesAustin Metro, TX~6-7 months (estimated)Buyer's MarketSignificant price corrections, high new construction inventoryVarious Arizona Markets6+ months (multiple markets)Buyer's MarketState above pre-pandemic inventory levelsColorado Markets6+ months (select markets)Buyer's MarketState inventory exceeds 2019 levelsIdaho Markets6+ months (select markets)Buyer's MarketRapid inventory buildup from pandemic boom

Total Identified Buyer's Markets: At least 13 confirmed markets with 6+ months of inventory, with additional markets likely approaching this threshold across the nine states with above-2019 inventory levels.

Deep Dive: Florida Buyer's Markets

Florida represents the most significant concentration of buyer's market conditions in the United States, with multiple Southwest Florida markets firmly in buyer's territory and the statewide inventory trending toward balance.

Florida Statewide Market Conditions

Florida Housing Market Overview - January 2026

MetricSingle-Family HomesYear-Over-Year ChangeCondominiums/TownhomesMonths of Supply4.6 months+39% (from 3.3 months)10.3 monthsMedian Sale Price$415,000+1.2%$—Active Listings162,000-3.8%—New Listings (Monthly)31,752+12.5%—Days on Market82 days+21%—Price Per Square Foot$—-4% to -5% (varies by market)—

Key Florida Trends:

- Condo market shows extreme buyer's conditions: With 10.3 months of supply, Florida's condominium market faces significant oversupply
- Single-family approaching balance: At 4.6 months statewide, single-family inventory is within striking distance of the 6-month balanced threshold
- Dramatic regional variations: While statewide averages suggest near-balance, Southwest Florida markets show strong buyer's conditions while some coastal areas remain tighter
- Seasonal factors ahead: Florida traditionally sees inventory increase during winter/spring selling season, which could push more markets over 6 months
Cape Coral: Buyer's Market Analysis

Cape Coral represents one of Southwest Florida's most active buyer's markets, with inventory hovering just above the buyer's market threshold and showing signs of market stabilization.

Cape Coral Market Metrics - November 2025

MetricCurrent ValueMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-YearMedian Sale Price$366,903+3.4%-5.9%Months of Supply6.1 monthsFlat-11.3% (from 6.9)Active Listings2,899 homes-1.1%-11.3%Pending Sales468+68.3% from Oct+68.3% YoYDays on Market60 daysFlat+9.1%Sale-to-List Ratio96.9%+0.6%ImprovingPrice Per Square Foot$215Flat-5.3%

Cape Coral Market Dynamics:

Buyer Advantages:

- Fastest-selling market in Southwest Florida at 60 days median (vs. 72-day regional average)
- Most affordable entry point in Southwest Florida at $366,903 median
- Significant year-over-year price decline of 5.9% creates buying opportunities
- Tightening inventory suggests the market is approaching bottom
- Strong pending sales surge (+68.3% YoY) indicates renewed buyer confidence

Seller Challenges:

- Price corrections ongoing: October 2025 saw median at $350,000 (-6.7% YoY), November rebounded to $366,903
- 6.1 months supply gives buyers negotiating leverage
- Properties must be priced competitively: Overpriced listings sit longer
- Sale-to-list ratio at 96.9% means most sellers accepting some negotiation

Investment Implications for Cape Coral:

Cape Coral's affordability and liquidity create unique opportunities for real estate investors:

Rental Market Fundamentals:

- Median rent range: $1,800-$2,500/month for typical properties
- Target purchase price: $300,000-$400,000 for optimal cash flow
- Estimated rental yield: ~6.2%
- Vacancy considerations: Moderate but improving
- Quick repositioning: 60-day median sale time allows faster exit strategies than Naples (slower) or Bonita Springs

Risk Factors:

- Insurance costs: Hurricane exposure continues driving elevated homeowners insurance premiums
- Price volatility: Market still adjusting from pandemic boom
- Inventory uncertainty: Seasonal patterns could affect supply/demand balance

Forecast for Cape Coral 2026: Multiple analysts expect Cape Coral to transition toward a balanced market (5-6 months supply) by mid-2026, with prices stabilizing and potentially showing modest appreciation of 2-3% as inventory normalizes and buyer activity remains strong.

Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte: Strong Buyer's Market

The Charlotte County market (Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area) represents the strongest buyer's market conditions in Florida, with 8 months of inventory firmly establishing buyer negotiating power.

Charlotte County Market Metrics - December 2025

MetricCurrent ValueMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-YearProperties for Sale2,747 units-1%—Properties Sold441 units+26.7%+21.3%Pending Sales370 units-6.6%+17.1%Months of Inventory8.0 months+31.2%-21.6%Average Days on Market101 days-8.2%+8.6%Sold/Original List Price90%Flat-1.1%Price Per Sq Ft$219+3.3%-4.4%

Charlotte County Market Characteristics:

Strong Buyer's Market Indicators:

- 8 months of inventory is well above the 6-month balanced threshold
- Properties selling at 90% of original list price indicates significant negotiating room
- 101 days on market gives buyers ample time for due diligence
- Year-over-year price decline of 4.4% per square foot reflects market adjustment

Market Evolution:

- Peak inventory occurred January-February 2025 at 10.9 months
- Gradual improvement since peak: Inventory has declined from 10.9 to 8.0 months
- Sales activity strengthening: +21.3% more properties sold year-over-year
- Pending sales pipeline strong: +17.1% increase suggests sustained buyer interest

Buyer Opportunities in Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte:

This market offers exceptional negotiating leverage for buyers:

- Price negotiations: With 90% sold-to-list ratios, buyers should expect to negotiate 5-10% below asking price
- Seller concessions: Request closing cost assistance, home warranties, or repair credits
- Contingency protections: Buyers can maintain inspection and financing contingencies without risk of losing deals
- Extended due diligence: 101-day average DOM allows thorough property evaluation
- Selection: 2,747 active listings provide substantial choice

Investment Considerations:

Charlotte County presents a value-oriented opportunity for long-term investors:

- Lower entry prices than neighboring Sarasota or Naples markets
- Appreciation potential: Currently at bottom of cycle with improving fundamentals
- Retiree demand: Demographics support rental and resale demand
- Infrastructure development: Ongoing improvements support long-term value

Risks to Monitor:

- Hurricane exposure: Insurance costs and property vulnerability
- Market timing: Could remain in buyer's territory through 2026
- Economic sensitivity: Discretionary/retirement market vulnerable to economic shifts
Naples, Fort Myers, and Bonita Springs: Premium Market Adjustments

The higher-end Southwest Florida markets of Naples (7.8 months), Fort Myers (7.3 months), and Bonita Springs (7.5 months) all show buyer's market conditions, representing a significant shift from their historically tight inventory levels.

Southwest Florida Comparative Analysis

MarketMonths SupplyMarket PositionPrice Segment Most AffectedNaples7.8 monthsBuyer's MarketLuxury/waterfront showing most inventoryBonita Springs7.5 monthsBuyer's MarketMid-range homes ($400-700k)Fort Myers7.3 monthsBuyer's MarketBroad-based across price pointsCape Coral6.1 monthsBuyer's MarketEntry-level ($300-400k) most activePunta Gorda8.0 monthsStrong Buyer'sMid-range showing oversupply

Regional Observations:

- Entire Southwest Florida region has shifted to buyer-favorable conditions
- Coastal/premium properties taking longer to sell than inland alternatives
- New construction inventory contributing to oversupply, especially in Cape Coral and Fort Myers
- Seasonal factors: Winter 2026 selling season will test market absorption capacity

Deep Dive: Hawaii Buyer's Markets

Hawaii's real estate market shows significant variation across Oahu, with multiple areas exhibiting buyer's market conditions, particularly in the condominium segment.

Oahu Market Segmentation

Oahu Real Estate - Key Markets with 6+ Months Inventory (2025-2026 Data)

Single-Family Home Markets:

AreaMonths of InventoryMedian PriceYoY Price ChangeDays on MarketBid-Up %North Shore7.4 months$1,500,000-2 days16.7% (-43% YoY)Nuuanu-Makiki7.0 months$1,300,000+5 days23.4% (-10% YoY)Leeward5.7 months$674,9890 days27.4% (+24% YoY)

Condominium Markets:

AreaMonths of InventoryMedian PriceYoY Price ChangeDays on MarketBid-Up %Downtown-Nuuanu6.8 months$380,000-5 days9.7% (-29% YoY)Salt Lake6.3 months$400,000-6 days10.9% (-55% YoY)Pearl City-Aiea5.6 months$450,000-4 days20.9% (-28% YoY)

Hawaii Market Dynamics:

Key Trends:

- Condominium oversupply: Multiple condo areas showing buyer's market conditions with 6+ months inventory
- Declining bid-up percentages: Dramatic YoY drops in competitive offer situations (some down 43-55%)
- Extended days on market: Properties taking 40-51 days to sell in buyer's markets
- Price adjustments: Most buyer's markets showing negative YoY price changes (-2% to -6%)
- Geographic variation: Premium coastal areas (Waialae-Kahala, Manoa) remain tight with under 2 months inventory

North Shore Single-Family Analysis:

The North Shore home market shows classic buyer's market characteristics:

- 7.4 months of remaining inventory provides substantial buyer choice
- Median price of $1,500,000 down 2% year-over-year reflects price adjustments
- Bid-up percentage collapsed 43% (from 29.3% to 16.7%) - fewer competitive offer situations
- 40 days on market gives buyers negotiating time
- Market volatility: Sales jumped 34% YoY, but at lower price points

Investment Perspective: North Shore represents a luxury/vacation market with high barriers to entry but potential long-term appreciation as Hawaii's limited supply fundamentals reassert.

Oahu Condo Market Analysis:

Hawaii's condominium segment shows more pronounced buyer's market conditions:

Why Condos Face Oversupply:

- New construction delivery: Projects planned during boom are completing
- Investor liquidation: Some pandemic-era investors exiting
- Affordability constraints: $380-450k median prices still high for local buyers
- Maintenance costs: Rising HOA fees impacting buyer demand
- Remote work shifts: Some demand shifted toward single-family for space

Buyer Opportunities:

- Price reductions common: 5-6% YoY declines create value entry points
- Minimal competition: Bid-up percentages under 11% mean less pressure
- Selection available: 48-51 days on market provides thorough search time
- Negotiation leverage: 6+ months inventory supports buyer-favorable terms

Outlook for Oahu 2026:

Analysts expect gradual improvement toward balanced conditions:

- Inventory absorption: Strong local economy should stabilize condo demand
- Limited new supply: Construction pipeline smaller than previous years
- Tourism recovery: Supports investment/vacation property demand
- Affordability improvements: If rates ease to 6%, monthly payments become more manageable

State-by-State Analysis: Markets Above Pre-Pandemic Inventory

Nine states have surpassed their pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels, indicating structural shifts toward buyer-favorable conditions.

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