Southwest Florida Real Estate Hot and Cold Markets, September 2025

Southwest Florida Real Estate Hot and Cold Markets Which Towns Are Winning—and Which Aren’t

Quick take

- Leaders: Naples, Punta Gorda, inland Fort Myers, and parts of Bonita Springs/Estero are holding up best.
- Under pressure: Cape Coral, Fort Myers Beach, and older coastal condo pockets (including parts of Marco Island and coastal Naples) face slower sales and heavier carrying costs.
- Why it matters: Insurance, HOA/condo assessments, and rates now drive monthly affordability more than list price alone. Savvy buyers and sellers are underwriting the total payment, not just the mortgage.

What’s really moving the market

- Insurance + HOA/condo dues: In many coastal ZIP codes, annual premiums and post-Surfside reserve funding add hundreds per month to ownership costs. A $6,000/year premium is ~$500/month—often the difference between qualifying and sitting out.
- Mortgage rates: Higher rates have thinned discretionary second-home demand; primary buyers still transact, but they’re price- and payment-sensitive.
- Building age and code: Newer or recently upgraded homes/condos (impact glass, newer roofs, completed inspections) sell faster and closer to ask.
- Supply mix: New construction inland keeps a floor under Fort Myers/Estero; older coastal stock with looming assessments sees longer days on market.
- Short-term rental math: Stricter rules and higher overhead mean investors now demand cleaner numbers, pushing them toward newer buildings or single-family inland.

Best-performing towns (September 2025)

Town/AreaWhy it’s workingWhat’s sellingNaplesDeep luxury demand, cash share high, strong amenities baseNewer single-family, renovated homes, newer condos with healthy reservesPunta GordaEfficient turnover, boating lifestyle at a lower entry pointWaterfront single-family, 1990s-plus builds, well-managed condosFort Myers (inland)Ongoing new construction, relative affordability, solid rental demandBuilder spec homes, townhomes, newer resalesBonita Springs / Estero (inland and mid-coastal)Balanced inventory, strong amenity communities, fewer large assessmentsGated communities, newer villas, updated condos with completed studies

Naples. The top end remains resilient. Buyers pay for condition, location, and risk profile. Coastal older condos trade slowly unless inspections/reserves are squared away; newer product moves.

Punta Gorda. “Waterfront without Miami pricing” continues to resonate. Turnkey single-family with docks or easy marina access sees short days on market.

Fort Myers (inland). Payment-driven buyers target new builds with predictable costs. Insurance is lower inland, supporting first-time and move-up demand.

Bonita/Estero. Amenity-rich gated communities with newer roofs, impact glass, and transparent reserves are the sweet spot. Buyers reward clear documentation.

Markets under pressure

Town/AreaWhat’s draggingWhere value exists (with caveats)Cape CoralOversupply in some segments, insurance shock, older roofs, variable canal accessUpdated homes on wider/deeper Gulf-access canals; modern builds with wind-mit creditsFort Myers BeachElevated insurance/HOA, ongoing rebuild dynamics, permitting timelinesNewer/rebuilt homes and fully funded condos priced rightOlder coastal condos (Marco Island, coastal Naples pockets)Reserve mandates, special assessments, buyers discount riskBuildings with completed milestone inspections, funded SIRS, recent envelope/roof work

Cape Coral. The market bifurcates: dated inventory lags; newer or well-mitigated homes (impact windows, 2018+ roofs) still transact, especially on premium canals with bridge clearance that fits larger boats.

Fort Myers Beach. Buyers want clarity—on elevation, flood maps, and association budgets. Fully rebuilt product priced to the payment can move; anything with cost uncertainty sits.

Older coastal condos. The new underwriting standard is simple: show the inspection, show the reserves, show the master policy. Sellers who can document all three compress time on market; others chase the bid.

Micro-market notes (the details buyers actually use)

- Canal quality (Cape Coral): Width, depth, lock access, and bridge clearance now price in more visibly. A “Gulf access” label isn’t enough—boaters price the minutes and the mast height.
- Elevation and mitigation: Elevated construction, impact openings, and newer roofs earn real monthly savings via insurance credits.
- Association math: Buyers ask three questions up front: (1) milestone inspection status, (2) structural-integrity reserve study status and funding, (3) master policy renewal and deductible. Clean answers keep deals alive.
- Seasonality: Expect listing activity to pick up into late fall as snowbird season approaches; serious buyers try to get under contract before peak visitation.

Strategy: how to buy well in September 2025

- Underwrite the total payment. Model mortgage + insurance + taxes + HOA/condo dues at today’s quotes, not last year’s guesses.
- Demand documentation. Wind-mit, 4-point, roof permits, condo inspection/reserve docs, master policy summary. No docs, no premium assumptions.
- Shop inland and “near-coastal.” A few miles off the beach can reduce premiums dramatically while keeping lifestyle intact.
- Pay for mitigation, not mystery. A newer roof and impact glass often pencil better than a discount on a project property with unknown assessments.

Strategy: how to sell into this market

- Pre-package the risk story. Lead with wind-mit reports, permit history, roof age, and any credits the buyer’s insurer can use.
- Price to the payment. If insurance is $200–$300/month higher than a comp, consider trimming ask to keep the buyer’s total monthly similar.
- For condos: Publish the milestone inspection status, SIRS funding plan, and master policy details in the listing packet. Remove uncertainty; shorten DOM.
- Target the right buyer. Cash and 30%-down buyers dominate in higher-risk ZIPs; tune marketing and terms accordingly.

Simple affordability check (why buyers are picky now)

- Insurance: $6,000/year ≈ $500/month
- Assessment: $18,000 special ≈ $250/month (amortized informally over ~6 years in buyer psyche, even if paid lump sum)
When totals climb by $750/month, either price must fall or the buyer pool narrows. That’s the constraint shaping today’s negotiations.

What to watch in Q4 2025

- Reinsurance renewals and their impact on January premiums.
- Condo law timelines: which buildings complete inspections/reserve schedules and which defer—this will widen the gap between “green-light” and “hard-pass” towers.
- Rate path: even a modest rate dip can unlock sidelined demand in inland/new-build segments.
- Inventory mix: more rebuilt coastal product could stabilize beach submarkets if priced to the payment.